Hey there, Most occupancy forecasts are last month's number, plus a guess. The operators who get ahead of it read the signals early. This edition covers: - The 5 key metrics
- Seasonal patterns: the baseline most operators skip
- Four steps to go from data to plan
Before we start: These numbers only become useful when tracked against something. A 17% tour-to-membership conversion rate means nothing on its own. But if the average for similar businesses is 30%, it tells you exactly where the gap is – and what to fix before spending another euro on marketing. |
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1. The 5 key metrics 📐
Lead-to-desk conversion rate. How many inquiries does it take to fill one desk? If 30 inquiries became 5 memberships last month, your rate is 17%. Your tour pipeline is now a forecast, not a hope. Physical vs. economic occupancy. Physical occupancy counts filled desks. Economic occupancy counts revenue relative to your potential maximum. At Coworking Spain 2026, Marc Navarro made the point clear: |
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Click here to read the full recap of Coworking Spain Conference 2026. |
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A desk sold at a 40% discount and one sold at full rate both count as occupied. Only one is paying you what it should. Track both numbers separately. Occupancy by space type. Hot desks, private offices, meeting rooms, and event space follow different demand curves. "82% full" tells you nothing if you don't know which products are dragging and which are maxed out.
Contract end dates. Add up agreements running past today and mark the end dates. A big contract ending in month five is a dip you can plan for now. Alejandro Benet Edo of Nomadom Cospaces says he forecasts when offices will free up so a space coming empty in December is already being marketed in October. Churn signals before the cancellation. Two signals tend to move before a member cancels: - Check-in frequency. Members who stop showing up are usually leaving soon. In a 48-desk space at an average € 400/month, 6 ghost desks (members badging two days or fewer) represent € 2,400 in likely departures. Reach out now, not at renewal.
- Booking volume. Meeting-room and day-pass bookings move 6–8 weeks ahead of membership revenue. A sustained drop is next quarter's churn showing up early.
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2. Seasonal patterns: the baseline most operators skip 📅 Start with monthly average occupancy over two or three years to establish a seasonal baseline, then look at day-of-week trends within each season. A few things to track: - Year-on-year comparison. A space that looks flat in raw numbers might be losing share if the local market grows. Factor in renovations, new competitors, or broader shifts.
- Local events. A recurring conference or festival changes booking pace. Measure it, then use it. In Berlin, summer brings a steady flow of visitors who need somewhere to work while the rest of the city is at the park. A targeted day-pass push, "Need a proper place to focus while the city plays?", can turn that into real occupancy.
- Anomalies to exclude. One-off events, system outages, or a month you were half-closed for renovation will skew every projection if you leave them in.
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3. Four steps to go from data to plan 📑 Step 1: Get your data in one place. Start in Cobot. Check-ins, bookings, contract dates, plan changes, and cancellations are already there. Pull your occupancy and revenue history from the Analytics section and sit it next to your lead and web data. Read them separately, and you guess. Read them together, and you can plan. If you need to dig deeper or build a custom dashboard, Cobot's CSV export has you covered. Step 2: Set your break-even line. Know the occupancy percentage you need each month to cover costs, in economic occupancy, not physical. That's the floor every forecast gets checked against. Without it, a projection is just a number floating in the air. Step 3: Run a contract-based projection quarterly. Three columns: - Confirmed losses: contracts ending this quarter, at full value
- Likely losses: ghost desks times their rate
- Expected gains: tours in progress times your conversion rate
Run it twice from the current Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR), once pessimistic, once optimistic. |
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The range is your forecast. It won't be exact, but it beats a guess, and it's the base you layer your seasonal pattern on top of. Step 4: Act before the dip. Overlay your seasonal baseline onto the projection. If August is typically soft, push day-pass campaigns in June, not August. The marketing should be in market 4–6 weeks ahead of the gap. |
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Final Thoughts Operators who forecast well aren't running more complex businesses. They read the signals they already have a few weeks earlier than everyone else. Cobot's Analytics keeps occupancy, bookings, check-ins, and contract history in one place. The forecast is a short step from there. |
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👀 If any of this sparked a question, or you've got a forecasting trick of your own, I'd love to hear it. Just reply to this email :) |
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See you in two weeks, and happy coworking! 🥳 |
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The topic for next week is: "Be the space AI recommends" 🎯 |
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If you missed last week's newsletter, check it out here: |
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Reply to this email if you have any questions, disagree with something I said, or have a suggestion for a collaboration/future topic. I'm always happy to stay in touch. |
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Berlin , 12059, Germany |
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Cobot Coworking Software, 2026 |
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Rosee Shrestha
